Why it won’t work / Why it will….

Posted on April 17, 2012 by admin

The mechanics of economic collapse – U.S. style

Part 1

Predictions of a widespread economic collapse in the United States are legion.  Prognosticators say an economic firestorm like Zimbabwe’s is coming.  Zimbabwe’s inflation hit sky-high levels and effectively wiped out its economy.  Read about it, here.

Another example of the economic chaos coming soon, they say, is the ill-fated Weimar Republic of Germany. When Germany’s economy collapsed in 1923, it set the stage for social implosion and the rise of Adolph Hitler.  More on that, here and here.

People like Ron Paul and Pat Buchanan say that our fiat currency coupled with a debt based economy will self-destruct in a whirlwind of inflation and bad debt.  That implosion, say others, will cause anarchy and violence. From that, we are told, tyranny will emerge.

History supports the doomsayers.  In the past, hyper-inflation precedes the collapse of an economy.  During the hyperinflation in Germany and Zimbabwe, so much money flooded the markets that it became worthless.  That also happened during our Revolutionary War, and during the short-lived Confederate States of America.  When foreign and domestic sources of borrowing dried up, all turned to the printing presses to keep their economies alive.  And it didn’t work.

America is doing the same thing – borrowing money to make ends meet. The United States finances its debt and expenses by selling IOU’s called Treasury Bills. And so, it borrows money (trillions of dollars worth) to keep the government functioning and paying its bills. Anyone can buy Treasuries. Currently, the Federal Reserve is buying up about 70% of them. Foreign buyers used to account for 50% and now they buy about 30%.  Private buyers (individuals and businesses) used to buy up 40% of the bonds.  Now they buy virtually none.  When that changed, the Federal Reserve stepped in to buy the leftovers.  That, say people in the know, is nothing less than a Ponzi scheme.

When the Federal Reserve, a group of private bankers which controls the amount of money in circulation, buys Treasury Bills, it creates the money for the IOU and then gets it back with interest.  The Federal Reserve doesn’t “lend” us money, it creates money that didn’t exist and gets paid for it.  So the Federal Reserve makes a 100% profit, plus interest.  Not a bad deal for the Federal Reserve, eh?  Meanwhile, the United States gets deeper in debt while it tries to pay back its debts with more borrowed money. It’s a downward spiral – borrowing forces the US to borrow more, and more, and more.

Consequently, the United States’ ability to borrow from foreign countries is fading fast, since those countries rightly guess that the U.S. soon won’t be able to pay them back.  Fiscally sound countries are less and less willing to lend money to a country fifteen trillion dollars in debt (US debt clock) and going further in debt every day. More and more countries insist that it’s time to get out of dollars altogether.

When the lending sources dry up, the U.S. will either have to default on its obligations or, like other failing nations before us, print money to make ends meet. That would set in motion the forces of hyperinflation and consequent collapse.

Raising taxes and other non-starters next time…
JG

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Snow gear in bugout country…

Posted on February 26, 2012 by admin

The snow started last night around sundown and continued all night – snowfall thick as flies in August.  I went out to turn off the generator and the flashlight’s beam only poked a ten-foot hole through the flurry.

In the morning, nearly a foot of new snow was waiting for me. It was wet snow and getting wetter as the temperatures went north of freezing. Out came the shovel, the snow blower, then the 4 wheeler (with plow), and finally, the plow truck for the mile and a half of forested dirt road beyond the long driveway.  A couple of hours later I put the last of it away and headed to town for the mail. A typical snow day up here.

There’s only one piece of gear that doesn’t see a lot of use and that’s the snow mobile (or snow machine, as they say in Alaska). Essentially it has three uses: a toy (heading into the mountains on lovely, deep snow days), a well checker (running up to the holding tank to check whether we’ve got well water or not), and as emergency backup transportation down the mountain to the road.

Mostly it’s a toy. Turns out there haven’t been too many times I’ve had to use it to get to the county road. But deep snow makes it good to have a snow machine handy. Worst are slush days. Deep slush isn’t drivable, and barely rideable.  So, I think of the snow mobile as a kind of insurance.

My snowshoes are cheapo specials and they are sort of adequate for wallowing around in deep snow (I’d hate to walk a long way on ‘em). When the snow gets hip deep, out come the snowshoes.

Finally, when the white stuff melts down it leaves a trail of ice wherever I’ve walked much. Without ice cleats (Walmart – about $7.00) on, I tend to fall, and falling is a bad thing. Bad falls break bones; semi-bad falls leave injuries. My right hand is just now getting useful after last week’s impact on the ice.

So there it is, the short list for winter snow bugout gear.

‘Course a guy COULD live on a county road.  ;)

JG

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Homestead burnout

Posted on February 17, 2012 by admin

The guy next door is packing it in after bugging out 20 years ago. For him, age and a dicey open-heart surgery told him it was time to go back down the mountain. His place is a typical off-grid set up out here. Batteries backed with a generator and some solar panels ran his house and well.

He and his wife lived with the bears, the cougars, and the other riff raff up here in the mountains. Raised their daughter who married the son of another long time couple out here, who also grew up off-grid.

I saw my neighbor and asked him if he was still planning to sell. “Yeah, especially after today,” he laughed. In order to get up the one lane road that we live on, this time of year, you have to chain up. Otherwise you risk falling off the road, in some places a cliff a hundred or more feet high. In others, you tumble into a good-sized creek. He’d just taken his chains off and was heading out.

This afternoon I took a hard fall on that ice – my second in as many weeks. My body tells me that some day, something’s going to break. The doc said I sprained my wrist. I feel lucky. And sore.

Life out here is work. Lots of it. There’s risk too. Lots. I’ve got friends who have tried it a few years and now they want out. Too hard, too cold, too far from town, they say. Some just don’t have the money and they face losing the land they bought, the work they did, and the memories they made. Some are wondering where the end times went. Some wonder if the crash will ever come. Some wonder if they’re just too old.

The mountain can be hard… What to do?

In 1919 William Butler Yeats wrote:

THE SECOND COMING

“ Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: a waste of desert sand;
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Wind shadows of the indignant desert birds.

The darkness drops again but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?”

Rev 13:1 NKJV “Then I stood on the sand of the sea. And I saw a beast rising up out of the sea, having seven heads and ten horns, and on his horns ten crowns, and on his heads a blasphemous name.”

We should stay the course…

JG

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When the grid goes down…

Posted on February 3, 2012 by admin

Sounds like the start of a nut-ball article, doesn’t it? But, just for the sake of discussion, let’s say the local, regional, or national grid collapses (due to a terrorist attack, natural disaster, economic bust, etc.); what happens next? That question has already been answered by survivalist luminaries like James Wesley Rawles (and a host of guest writers on his excellent blog: www.survivalblog.com) so I won’t run on about it, much (please see my links page).

When the grid breaks down, our 21st century world drops back to the 19th. Generally speaking, when the lights go out, so does the water, sewer, internet and telephones (cell and land lines, too). Emergency generators blink on at critical places like hospitals. In a few days, those sources run out of fuel since gasoline and diesel are no longer available (gas pumps run on electricity, so no grid, no gas). And the hospitals go dark.

If people have advance warning of a possible shut-down, expect stores to be stripped clean of food, supplies, generators, etc. Gas stations will also be hard hit as consumers rush to fill their tanks and containers with fuel. If it comes by surprise, the horde heads to the stores and gas stations to find other hordes already there, cleaning out the inventory.

Those inventories can’t be replaced because the trucks that bring them in aren’t going to be running (no fuel, remember?). Soon, local areas would find themselves out of food and fuel. Social order would likely turn to disorder as populations, hungry and cold, begin to prey on themselves.

Some people have preplanned retreats and special vehicles (and fuel) to get there. They have to be ready to go at the earliest indicator of a breakdown because highways, freeways, and major thoroughfares would be immediately clogged by people trying to get out of the city.

Others may have hardened their homes and laid in supplies so that they can hunker down in their own homes or apartments. These people generally plan to have enough food and supplies to last a predetermined length of time. The trouble being – how long will the breakdown last? Days, weeks, or months? It all depends.

Experts like Rawles suggest that classic breakdowns and societal crashes can last up to two years and so that’s a reasonable time limit to prepare for. Assuming you can survive for two years on your stash (and you also have the means to conceal, and protect said supplies); society should be getting back on its feet. That’s a lot of beans, toilet paper and water to store up.

So how’s your stash? Or, how’s your luck? Think you can go get what you need from your neighbors? Maybe not; protecting themselves may have been part of their planning. You could find yourself in a firestorm.

Better yet, make some plans and get ready, our grid (and our way of life) is quite fragile.

God bless,
JG

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Solar power in winter

Posted on January 25, 2012 by admin

Solar living in the dead of winter?

Not easy – solar living when there’s very little sunshine (which powers the all-so-important) batteries that power your system, is tricky.

Love your generator

I am lucky. I live with a good generator that sips gasoline and enables me to do the things that need more power than a cloudy day provides. Things like doing the laundry, drying clothes (with a propane dryer), running computers and internet, turning on lights so I can read, that sort of thing.

All of these have work arounds in case fuel wasn’t available or cheap. Washers and dryers work just fine on a sunny day (and I see about one of those a week, sometimes more). Cloudy day? Washing can wait. Already washed clothes can be hung up and dried the old way. I’ve got computers with long battery lives and the internet service is MiFi which runs nicely on its batteries for a few hours, too. Lights can be a subject all in themselves. But the short answer is: oil lanterns, solar lanterns and lights and Coleman propane lanterns can make short work of the darkness.

What’s for dinner?

Cooking and hot water are provided by propane at my place. I had a 500-gallon tank installed and that usually lasts upwards of four months, depending how much of it I use. The big hogs are the large indoor heater, the water heater, the fridge, the clothes dryer and the stove. I only use the propane heater as a backup or, if I’m feeling rich, as a house warmer when the mercury drops into the teens or lower.

But solar is the primary source. I have three arrays with four 3X5’ panels. They send electricity via a power center into a battery of 12 sealed batteries (that weigh about 500 lbs each); from there the current is drawn through an inverter that converts it to AC. And from there the recycled sunshine hits the light switches and outlets.

Light is good!

I use low wattage florescent lights, e.g., a 15 watt florescent about equals the light of a 60 watt incandescent. And I’m looking forward to LED lights, which use a fraction of that. Why? Solar power makes a fraction of the power the grid sends into on-grid homes. You can’t run electric heaters, air conditioners, and maybe worst of all, no microwaves or hair dryers! Even though the power draw is small with the florescent stuff, my 12 batteries draw down fairly fast with more than one thing on at a time.

So that brings us to alternative lights. Oil lamps, used for millenniums, still work great. I don’t use the olive oil lamps, I use a couple of Dietz lanterns, and easily found, inexpensive indoor lamps. Spread a few of these around and you will be pleased at the light they make. I use odorless lantern oil. Kerosene and regular lantern oil stink and may well mess with your lungs (California labels such things as potential cancer causers).

In the 1930′s a lot of people lit their homes with Aladdin lamps. Once US made, now they are made in the orient – China? South Korea? And the quality has suffered badly. They burn kerosene and yet make no odor and they put off a lot of light (60 watts is what they advertise). When they’re working good, that is. Aladdin lamps are very touchy, and dangerous to leave burning without someone there. They tend to flame out or soot badly, with little provocation. There are websites that will give you hints on how to run them. While Walmart sells indoor oil lamps for around $8, Aladdins start at $120 and rapidly go up if you want a shade (about $50 in the Lehman’s catalog), and a metal ring to rest the shade on (another $50 to $75). Not recommended!

Solar Lanterns and Flashlights

New on the scene are solar lanterns and flashlights. They are as described. They have tiny solar panels that charge in sunlight, and batteries that run them at night. Fully charged lanterns are advertised at four hours use (or more), as are the flashlights. We have three copies of the flashlights (@ $20 each from Amazon.com) and so far they work reliably and put off good light. They appear to be durable, having survived at least one hard fall so far.

Solar lanterns need more charge to do as well as the flashlights, and they don’t seem to last as long. Good for short term area lighting or lighting up the kitchen counters when meals are being prepared; so far they don’t hold enough charge to light for very long.

There is a widely recommended reading light called a “Firefly” that sells for around $35 on Amazon. It is supposed to provide four hours of bright, six hours of fairly bright or more time on a single LED nightlight, should you need that. We have one copy and would give it an “okay” rating. It takes a long time to charge up on January days and the light doesn’t last long.

What about candles?

Candles are traditional light sources from antiquity. They have two distinct disadvantages.
1. They don’t put out much light. Not much at all. Okay, better than total darkness, but…
2. Candles don’t last long. You need a lot of them. At $1 a candle, or more, that gets spendy fast. They can also be quite messy – if you’ve ever blown one out to find hot wax all over the window behind it, you know what I mean. Consequently, over the years I’ve dropped them in favor of the cheaper, brighter oil lamps.

It’s always a challenge, but you get used to it.

Could I live without anything but solar? I think so, but I’d rather not. Maybe in the next few years, solar technology will overcome its innate weaknesses – as in, it’s limited (cloudy days aren’t fun), expensive to start up and not much good in northern winters. It still works when it’s cloudy (sometimes), and it makes great power regardless of the temperature on a sunny day. But days like that are few during the dark months.

Would I do it again?

Without hesitation. It is hard work living here (compared to living in a climate controlled condo, for instance). Wood must be cut, hauled, split, stacked, carried into the house and burned. Stoves and chimneys must be cleaned regularly. Lights have to be kept to a minimum (unless Mr. Generator is on). Everything is about conservation and thought (like, don’t leave the lights on when you leave the room, or house – it’s not good on the batteries to get sucked dry). Some things you just don’t do. Like, leave the electric bread maker and the popcorn maker off until Mr. Generator gives you permission.

But the lights only go out when you want them to. Not during a storm. Not during an “outtage.” You can have light whenever you want; but you have to take care of your system. In short, it’s a sowing and reaping thing.

JG

 

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Storm Warning

Posted on January 17, 2012 by admin

In the north woods, a winter storm warning means that nasty weather is imminent. Old timers know to get their wood in and all other chores (including shopping) done as soon as possible. What you don’t want to do is drive anywhere in a blizzard, or even be outside. Better to hunker down in a warm cabin with a book, a cup of tea, and wait it out.

This winter has been strange. The last several were snowy and cold. This year we’ve had cold, but aside from the first storm in November, very little of the white stuff. It’s mid-January and the weather’s changed, a storm’s blown in. We could get a couple of feet of wet snow and then, in a couple days, it’s supposed to start raining. Then come the low 40’s temperatures for few days. And that’s been the pattern – snow, rain, and 40-something weather.

I think of people who imagine, should society collapse, they can refugee into the woods and ride it out. My advice, on the strength of nearly a decade in the woods – come well prepared; or better, prep where you are and bug in at home.

As I’ve mentioned before, there are huge obstacles to overcome in the woods. To name a few, there’s little food up here, game is scarce, the few edible veggies are long gone (it’s the dead of winter), and there’s precious few shelters lying around unoccupied.

I’ve been told that there are those who are only prepping one way. They’re buying guns and plan to take whatever they need from everybody else. On the slim chance you’re one of those and reading this, know that there are a lot of well prepared folks who are ready to enthusiastically contest your efforts!

People say there’s lots of deer and elk, in the mountains. Here’s the truth – if that were so, how is it so few experienced hunters fill their game tags?

Do you even know what to do with game, should you manage to kill it? Do you know how to skin and butcher it?

Have you thought about all the other hopeful Davy Crockett types who plan to do the same as you? Visualize campgrounds and forests full of people who may be very unhappy to see you in “their” woods. Unhappy, hungry, armed folk, who may see you as a competitor for what little there is to eat?

If so, what’s your plan? Here’s a hint: you can’t shoot everybody, intimidate, or con them. What is it you bring with you that they might find useful? If the answer to that is, “I don’t know,” stay home.

There’s a storm coming. Many believe that our fragile society and idiot government stand on a precipice. And it will take very little to knock it over. The chaos that will follow will be ugly. If you show up out here, be ready.

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2012 – the more things change….

Posted on January 4, 2012 by admin

Here it is, the big bad year; the year that Planet X is due to arrive, the end of the Mayan calendar is coming, and there’s yet another presidential election.

On the mountain, we are having one of the mildest winters in the last eight years. Little snow cover. Rain. Some ice. Temperatures in early January from the high 20′s to the low 40′s… almost record-breaking temperatures for our area.

Staying warm

Some things stay the same. It’s still cold. We burn wood. Firewood continues to be hauled to the house, split, brought in, used and then the process begins all over.
The wood splitter decided to go down, so off to the repair shop it went. $100.00 later, we were back in business.

Darkness – depressing

The short days can get to you. It gets dark around 4 in the afternoon. By 3 p.m., it’s too dark to read. By 4 p.m., the lanterns come on. At 6 p.m., the generator buzzes to life. Now I miss the long days of summer; sometimes the long nights are oppressive.
The routine is relentless. And I’m thankful we got wood in this summer. Thankful I can afford the gas to run the new generator (the last one – a Honda – burned up in three years). Glad I’ve got a good roof and a tight house.

Wolves

They’re trapping and snaring wolves on my road and they put up warning signs for dog owners. That would be me. Dogs are the watchers. They tell us when we have four-legged or two-legged company. They (I have several) warn off bears, cougars, coyotes and presumably, wolves — the fury neighbors we’d rather not run into very often. Moose, on the other hand, ignore the dogs.

Dogs

Dogs are good security systems, companions, and friends. Reportedly, pioneers always had a dog or two to let them know someone was coming, or there were deer in the garden, etc.
When they sound off in the middle of the night, we pay close attention. Spotlights, even night vision can be nice additions to the cache.

Arms?

Old timers in this neck of the woods tell me they are always armed. Some of the critters out here could eat you! Some can rob you.

Despite the isolation, a neighbor was burglarized, and came home to a lot of missing gear and possessions. Isolation is no insurance against bad guys.

It’s 2012, and some things never change.
God bless you this year!

John

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More from the mountain…

Posted on November 23, 2011 by admin

Last post was last summer. Now it’s winter. The opener was a snowstorm that lasted about a week. Then it turned to rain, and slush. Last week the temperatures hovered near zero. Now they’re headed to the low 40’s. Want to live in this? Bring a raincoat, a cabin and lots of firewood!

The native Americans all lived miles from here, on the river where there was ample game, water, and warmer temperatures. Technology makes us stupid….

The real work starts when winter hits. Living in the woods in the Pacific Northwest, in winter, is something you really don’t want to do – unless you’re ready. Ready means you need a way to get in and out of here – even when no one plows the road. Ready means having shelter, food, fuel, and the right clothing (leave your bathing suits at the beach).

I’ve heard a number of people say that after the collapse they’ll just grab their tents, bags, and bullets and head into the mountains. Sounds like it might get crowded out here! Crowded with cold, wet, and hungry folk. And I pray that doesn’t happen! Check this out:

http://www.alaskawintercabin.com/tent_in_tok.html

Granted, the Mountain West isn’t Alaska, but when the snow gets 3 or 5 feet deep, and temperatures head towards or below zero, life gets interesting.

Those that can afford it have a snowmobile for those “interesting times.” Randy Weaver, it is said, used a snowmobile to get in and out of his Ruby Ridge house. Most people also have a pair or two of snowshoes. Almost everyone out here drives 4x4s.

What happens when gasoline isn’t available? Then the 4X4’s, the snowmobiles, and the ATVs go dead. Ever try to walk in deep snow?  Better know your way around snowshoes and sleds. It might be nice to have a horse!

How about getting firewood? Chainsaws? Not after the gas goes away. Got a good crosscut saw? Know how to use and sharpen it? You in good shape?

In my last post I raised some issues that I hoped to address in future posts. Here they are:

  •  Are you looking to get off grid and go solar? Or use some other alternative energy source?
  •  Or stay on grid and put in a backup energy source?
  •  What do you want to live in? A cabin? A bunker?
  •  Do you want neighbors?
  •  Are you in a survivalist group or alone?
  •  What kind of budget can you put into prepping (at all levels – food, shelter, medical, etc.)?
  •  How are you going to heat your place, get water, food, and necessities after the collapse?

The best answer to all of these issues is you. Use the net. Search “survival blogs,” “Backwoods Solar,” or even “solar energy” and follow some links. There’s a lot out there. On my links page, I recommend a few good links as well. Check them out. These people are experts and they can give you some great ideas. Happy hunting!

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Surviving the collapse

Posted on August 29, 2011 by admin

Greenhorn Mountain Man

Cognizant, years ago, that things were going haywire in the world and especially in the good old USA, I decided to move to the mountains. I don’t hunt or fish and I wasn’t born here. I didn’t know how to run  fix, repair, or do hardly anything. Nothing. I am as green as greenhorns get!

Mountain man training consisted of, well, nothing. Ragnar Benson, noted survivalist once said that if you aren’t a country person, stay in the city. He didn’t say what to do if you were neither.

But it seemed like a reasonable choice – getting out of town and on the land, where there was lots of firewood, game, and little of anyone else (I cheerfully thought). I felt blessed to be able to give it a try.

First Lessons:

In short, I found that winters are hard, usually very cold and wet. Summers short and usually hot. Turns out that most of my other preconceptions were wrong too.  Living in the mountains is a strong mix of frustration, faith in God, sweat and prayer.

The world around me is beautiful and sometimes even peaceful; but the challenges are big. The place you get has a couple of price tags – the one you buy it for. The second one is what you pay to make it all work.

Overnight, blizzards can encase you in several feet of snow.  The road is only open if you keep it that way (and there are several miles of it).

Hot summers mean springs that ran in the melt-down, dry up. Forest fires are always a danger out here (especially during the hot dry summer), and waking up after midnight with smoke coming in the windows isn’t a good experience.

Storms blow in quickly and down trees. Trees land in the road – and stay there. Getting to town means moving them out of the way.

I could go on about the machinery that always needs work, the stuff that always runs out, and, and, but I think you get it. Back to nature means back to work!

If you can afford to live off the beaten path, or are thinking about it, here’s a short list of things to consider:

  • Are you looking to get off grid and go solar? Or use some other alternative energy source?
  • Or stay on grid and put in a backup energy source?
  • What do you want to live in? A cabin? A bunker?
  • Do you want neighbors?
  • Are you in a survivalist group or alone?
  • What kind of budget can you put into prepping (at all levels – food, shelter, medical, etc.)?
  • How are you going to heat your place, get water, food, and necessities after the collapse?

I’ll try to answer these in subsequent posts! See you soon!

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TEOTWAWKI and Hurricane Irene

Posted on August 28, 2011 by admin

Live from New York – Michael Bloomberg tells NYC residents that they don’t have enough people to drag them outta their houses, but they better evacuate – or else. Or else, what? Mikey won’t say. What’s  sobering about the quote is the “dragging people out of their houses” part. Did he want to add the word, “yet” to that statement? Feels like it…

A resident in Brooklyn wrote today that he went shopping for food early yesterday to prep for the hurricane and the store was pandemonium. Running low on nearly everything, he was sure that in a few hours, the shelves would be bare. A store nearby had shoppers lined up for two blocks waiting to get in.

Philadelphia residents report a run on shotguns and buckshot by people looking to protect themselves and their property from looters. Shotguns in Philly, you see, don’t (yet?) have the restrictions on them that so-called military rifles do…

Lessons, anyone?

Prep now – in an emergency, even in the run up, you won’t have time, or selection, or even a place to shop. Which means no, or very little food. Buy early, buy ample – more rather than less is best when it comes to food and water.

Oh, by the way, how long will you be without power? No one knows. So prep long, not short – it’s much easier to figure out what to do with too much than too little.

Think there might be looters? Trouble? Make a plan, get the gear you need, run it, learn it, get good with it. Get the best training available, here’s a link:

http://www.defense-training.com/

Finally:

Are you ready? What will it take? What if it gets really bad? Or goes on a long time? Are you still ready?

Pro 27:12  A prudent man foresees evil and hides himself; The simple pass on and are punished.

(Quotes taken from:  http://www.defense-training.com/quips/quips.html)

JG

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